Pro Guide to Hi-Lo Card Counting in Blackjack

What Is Hi-Lo Card Counting?

The Hi-Lo system assigns a value to every card dealt in blackjack. By tracking these values, you can estimate whether the remaining cards in the deck favor the player (more high cards) or the dealer (more low cards).

Card Value Assignments:

Card	Count Value	Impact
2, 3, 4, 5, 6	+1	Favors the player; increase running count
7, 8, 9	0	Neutral; no effect on count
10, J, Q, K, Ace	-1	Favors the dealer; decrease running count

The Running Count

As cards are dealt, you keep a mental tally called the running count:

• +1 for every 2–6 seen
• 0 for every 7–9
• -1 for every 10–Ace

Example:
If the cards seen are: 3, 5, Q, 8, Ace
Your count = +1 (3) +1 (5) -1 (Q) 0 (8) -1 (Ace) = 0

The True Count

In multi-deck games, the running count needs to be adjusted to account for how many decks remain. This gives you the true count—a more accurate representation of your edge.

Formula:

True Count = Running Count ÷ Number of Decks Remaining

Example:
Running Count = +6
Decks remaining = 3
True Count = 6 ÷ 3 = +2

Adjusting Your Bet Size

The whole point of counting cards is to bet more when you have the edge.

True Count	Suggested Action
0 or less	Bet the table minimum
+1	Slight edge; still bet minimum
+2 or higher	Increase bet; higher count = bigger bet
+3 or more	Favorable shoe—aggressive betting zone

Pro Tip: Use a bet spread (e.g., 1–8 units) depending on your bankroll and risk tolerance.

Practicing the Hi-Lo System

Phase 1: Single-Card Drills

• Flip through a deck, one card at a time.
• Say the count value aloud.
• Goal: Finish a deck with an exact final running count of 0.

Phase 2: Timed Deck Runs

• Count through a full deck as quickly as possible.
• Goal: 25 seconds or less, error-free.

Phase 3: Add Distractions

• Practice with background noise, music, or people talking.
• Simulates a real casino environment.

Phase 4: Estimate Decks Remaining

• Practice visually estimating “decks remaining” in discard trays.

How to Stay Undetected

Casinos allow card counting, but they don’t like it.

Tips to Stay Under the Radar:

• Vary bet sizes subtly (don’t jump from $10 to $500 in one hand)
• Avoid team play unless well-trained
• Don’t stare at the discard tray
• Appear social and casual; engage dealers and other players
• Occasionally make a small mistake on purpose (intentional camouflage)

Combining Strategy with Counting

Card counting doesn’t replace basic strategy—it complements it.

Key adjustments:

• Insurance: Only take it when true count is +3 or higher.
• Standing vs. Hitting: In marginal hands (like 16 vs. 10), stand if the true count is high.
• Deviations from basic strategy based on count are called index plays—learn them as you advance.

Expected Value & Win Rate

A good counter can gain an edge of 0.5% to 1.5% over the house. Over thousands of hands, this adds up.

Example:
At a $25 base bet and +1% edge:

• Expected hourly profit = ~50–100 hands × $25 × 1% = $12.50–$25/hour

Mental & Bankroll Discipline

Even perfect counters go through losing streaks.

• Have a dedicated bankroll (50–100 units minimum)
• Never chase losses
• Stay focused for hours—card counting is mentally taxing
• Don’t play tired, drunk, or distracted

Final Thoughts: Practice, Patience, Profit

Card counting with the Hi-Lo system is a proven way to beat blackjack. While it takes effort and discipline to master, it rewards players with control, confidence, and long-term profitability.

Essentials Recap:

• Learn basic strategy first
• Master running and true count
• Practice until it’s second nature
• Combine counting with money management
• Keep a low profile in live games